Real Estate Valuation Tool

Too many simulations (>500) will take a long time to complete
Last simulation too: 5.56 seconds to complete
Property Information
$
Enter the value of the property in USD
years
How long you plan to hold this property in years. The US average holding period is around 8 years.
Enter the zipcode of the property
This is used to get historical prices and then forecast future scenarios
or blank to use a national average
Loading Zip code Data...

Fixed Costs
$
Enter the Homeowners Association (HOA) fees per month in USD.
% / year
Enter the maintenance cost per month as a percentage of property value. A good ballpark estimate is 0.50% to 1% of property value per year.
$
Enter the home owners insurance per month in USD.
Mortgage Information
%
Enter the down payment as a percentage of property value or [0%] if you don't intend to take a mortgage
%
Enter the mortgage rate in percentage
Latest 30YR Mortgage Rate = 6.09%
years
Enter the mortgage term in years.
%
Enter the closing costs at inception as a percentage of property value.
%
Enter the closing costs when selling home as a percentage of property value.
Tax Information
%
Enter the property tax as a percentage of property value per year.
%
Enter your marginal tax rate.
%
Enter your capital gains tax rate.

Opportunity Costs
 to  hrs/wk
Enter a range of hours you expect to dedicate to home activities. For example: 0 - 5.
$ /hour
Enter your personal subjective rate.
How much do you value your own time?
$ /month
How much you would pay to rent a similar home?
Ticker of a benchmark to calculate opportunity cost of cash flows. We are applying a 50.00% discount on past returns of this benchmark. This is a conservative adjustment.
Incidentals
$ /month
Enter any additional expected repairs per month in USD.
%
Enter the cost of a major repair as a percentage of property value. Usually around 1%.
Think a new roof, furnace, etc...
% / yr
Enter the probability of a major repair per year. For example, a 25% chance per year is once every 4 years.
hours
When these major events happen, how many hours of your time will it take?
% / year
Enter the probability of asset seizure. For example: 1% / year is once every 100 years.
once every years
You'll need to make renovations at some point. Enter the renovation frequency (once every [n] years).
% of property value
Enter the renovation cost as a percentage of property value. 10% is a good estimate for a major renovation every 10 years.
Home Price Forecasts
$ 500,000
Initial Property Value
10 years
Total Holding Period
$ 800,629 ( 60.13% )
Average Forecast
(Final Value)


Below are the random variable results after running the simulations

$800,629

Expected house value in 10 years

+4.82%

Average annual increase in your area based on 25 years of data
Composite 20 Index (SPCS20RSA)

+3.14%

Simulated expected inflation rate (annualized) based on historical data FRED:CPIAUCSL

100

Number of simulations concluded

1.0 hours

Average weekly hours expected to be spent on home owning tasks representing an opportunity cost of $496 /week.

$28,687

Total renovation costs during 10 years. Assuming renovations happen, on average, once every 15 years each costing 8% of property value.

2

Major repairs needed during the 10 years.
Each costing $10,000 on average.

0x

Number of times the property was seized

Using the average between all simulations, the following are the expected cash flows

Upfront
Downpayment $100,000
Closing Costs $-
 Closing costs of $12,000 are being financed. The total mortgage amount is $412,000.
TOTAL upfront $100,000
Monthly Costs
(avg. between all simulations)
Mortgage Payment $2,494
HOA Fees $99
Insurance $100
Home Maintenance (small repairs) $207
Major Repairs $285
Renovations $237
Real Estate Taxes $375
TOTAL / month $3,796
x 120 months
= $455,576
Opportunity Costs
(monthly)
Not having to rent $2,000
Interest Tax deduction $485
Hours Spent 3.97 hours per month
Personal Cost $1,984
TOTAL / month $501
x 120 months
= $60,172

$500,000

Initial Home Value

$800,629

Forecast Home Value

$300,629

Gross PnL

$-94,775

Net PnL

$395,405

Total cost of home ownership through 10 years
This is equivalent of buying 0.79 houses
Not considering time value of money


$+261,887

This is the mental calculation most people will do when selling their house.
They will compare their final liquidation value to their downpayment.
It leaves out many costs

$-133,518

But this is the PnL after accounting for all costs (see cash flow tab)


How much would you have made if you had invested in BTC instead?
Note that these are forecasted prices based on historical returns. Most certainly they will be wrong but they are in line with the methodology used to forecast the home value.

BTC

Benchmark used

$71,128

Starting Price

$13,244,621

10 year forecasted Price using a 50.00% discount on past returns

$18,620,909

Your $100,000 downpayment is forecasted to be worth this amount in 10 years